Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.190031 2.321443 2.460122 2.617973 2.793410 2.983276 3.205475
2025-05-04 2.024069 2.208593 2.413205 2.659129 2.949727 3.286167 3.711235
2025-05-11 1.885230 2.096035 2.337535 2.638772 3.010551 3.463048 4.069986
2025-05-18 1.782212 2.010176 2.278022 2.622141 3.062249 3.621109 4.411453
2025-05-25 1.695547 1.934630 2.221363 2.598870 3.096494 3.752230 4.725161
2025-06-01 1.622009 1.868783 2.169934 2.574883 3.123085 3.870055 5.029233
2025-06-08 1.569403 1.824766 2.141581 2.576339 3.180470 4.031814 5.416063
2025-06-15 1.533144 1.798549 2.133196 2.601819 3.270518 4.246443 5.915146
2025-06-22 1.475379 1.741501 2.080859 2.562930 3.264052 4.313943 6.178896
2025-06-29 1.421316 1.686656 2.028351 2.519868 3.246929 4.361255 6.411971
2025-07-06 1.367183 1.629445 1.969879 2.464651 3.206877 4.366934 6.567993
2025-07-13 1.346317 1.615159 1.968412 2.490034 3.289898 4.579585 7.152037
2025-07-20 1.331454 1.608706 1.977863 2.532571 3.404290 4.860832 7.944180
2025-07-27 1.316065 1.600775 1.984642 2.571195 3.515279 5.150000 8.832435
2025-08-03 1.283351 1.567803 1.954484 2.551924 3.529106 5.263024 9.345703
2025-08-10 1.253870 1.538197 1.927773 2.536191 3.547126 5.385218 9.915006
2025-08-17 1.224314 1.507470 1.898157 2.514170 3.552326 5.482458 10.447987
2025-08-24 1.196269 1.477956 1.869137 2.491466 3.554367 5.573145 10.991847
2025-08-31 1.176699 1.459718 1.855823 2.492844 3.598788 5.755922 11.871539
2025-09-07 1.164516 1.451480 1.856779 2.516961 3.685728 6.040485 13.198056
2025-09-14 1.136408 1.419682 1.821526 2.480148 3.657375 6.067816 13.663716
2025-09-21 1.108522 1.387526 1.784792 2.439361 3.619004 6.068498 14.038933
2025-09-28 1.078758 1.352014 1.742065 2.387026 3.555807 6.005954 14.157336